# Alaska Air Group: Demand Index and Scorecard

Source: Passenger Index, https://passengerindex.com/web/airlines/alaska/ (CC BY 4.0). Updated 2026-11-07.

The Alaska Air Group Demand Index tracks Alaska's monthly domestic seats on all its flights, a capacity-led read of its traffic, about three months before the official BTS T-100 figures. Each month's reading is part of the Passenger Index Pro plan; the combined index is free.

Alaska Air Group in the Airline Portal: domestic seats on all its flights as a capacity-led read of traffic, capacity from the flights that actually flew against Alaska's own guidance, and our track record, in one place. Pro+ sees the quarter as it happens; Pro sees each quarter the day after Alaska reports it.

## The quarter clock

- Q4 2026 (estimates): day 38 of 92
- Last report: Q3 2026 on Oct 20, 2026
- Next report (expected): Jan 21, 2027
- Q4 2026 opens to Pro: Jan 22, 2027

## What Alaska guided for Q4 2026

> "Table row 'Capacity (ASMs) % change versus 2025': Up 1% to 1.5%. Text: 'Air Group expects capacity to grow approximately 1% to 1.5% year-over-year'"

ASMs +1% to +1.5% vs Q4 2025 (as reported), system (Q3 2026 release, Oct 20, 2026). Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/766421/000076642126000046/ex99110202026earningsrelea.htm

## Track record

Average miss over 8 quarters: 0.1 points (correlation 1.00).

| Quarter | Our read | Alaska reported | Gap (pts) | Released |
|---|--:|--:|--:|---|
| Q2 2026 | +1.0% | +1.0% | 0.0 | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 | +1.7% | +1.7% | 0.0 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Q4 2025 | +2.1% | +2.2% | 0.1 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Q3 2025 | -0.7% | -0.7% | 0.1 | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Q2 2025 | +2.6% | +2.7% | 0.1 | Jul 23, 2025 |
| Q1 2025 | +3.7% | +3.9% | 0.2 | Apr 23, 2025 |
| Q4 2024 | +2.5% | +2.5% | 0.0 | Jan 22, 2025 |
| Q3 2024 | +3.5% | +3.6% | 0.1 | – |

The demand index month by month and Q4 2026 to date are in the Pro and Pro+ plans: https://passengerindex.com/web/plans/.

## Main airports

SEA, HNL, PDX, OGG, ANC, KOA, LIH

## How it is measured

The figure is the change in seats on all the airline's domestic flights, year over year: a capacity-led read of its traffic. Seats come from BTS T-100 for the months BTS has published; before that from BTS's on-time flight records and Passenger Index flight activity data (air traffic flight messages), with seats for each aircraft type from T-100, each day against the same weekday a year earlier. TSA checkpoint counts at the airline's main airports and the national change in how full flights are were both tested and did not improve it: other airlines share those checkpoints, and this airline's planes fill on their own pattern. The actual figure is the airline's domestic boardings on all its flights from BTS T-100, which BTS publishes about three months after the month ends.

- Seats are capacity, not passengers: when the airline's planes fly fuller or emptier than a year earlier, the figure misses by the change in load factor.
- A month the flight data doesn't cover yet has no reading until BTS posts its flight records.
- The figure counts domestic flights only, as the official figure does.

- **Seats:** Each flight's seats are estimated from its aircraft type and the seats airlines fly on that type (BTS T-100, latest 12 months); seat-miles are seats times the great-circle distance. The share of flights without a seat estimate is shown with the figures.
- **Airline:** Flights are counted with the airline that sells the seats: SkyWest, Republic, Envoy, PSA, Endeavor and the other regional partners count with United, Delta or American as they fly for them.
- **Scope:** Domestic: flights between US airports, each once. To and from the US: domestic plus international flights departing or arriving at US airports; flying wholly outside the US is not included. The international part is marked provisional until it has been checked against BTS T-100 for the airline.
- **Last year:** Each day is compared with the same weekday a year earlier: domestic flights from BTS On-Time with the same seat method, international seat-miles from BTS T-100 for that quarter, split by month in the airline's own T-100 pattern.
- **Q4 2026:** Our flight activity starts on October 26, 2026. October 1 to 25 is estimated, for domestic flying only, from adsb.lol aircraft position reports: each airline's departures between US airports are counted from the position tracks and given seats from the same aircraft-type table, then its flights, seats and seat-miles are each divided by that airline's ratio of position-report counts to our flight activity over October 27 to 31. BTS On-Time replaces these days when it publishes October (about mid-December). International flying is not estimated, so seat-miles to and from the US start on October 26, and a call against guidance needs 30 days of our own flight activity. Airport figures do not use these estimates.
- **Passengers per seat:** TSA screenings at the airline's hub checkpoints against the domestic seats departing those hubs, as an index: 100 is the same ratio as the same week last year. TSA does not see connecting passengers, so it is a trend, not a load factor.
- **Guidance:** Each airline's own capacity guidance, quoted from its earnings release or 8-K with the date. Never consensus: we have no estimates data.

Demand: the Alaska Demand Index (capacity-led: its seat growth) tracked Alaska's domestic boardings on all its flights (BTS T-100) with a correlation of 0.85 over 36 months.
Seat-miles, flying to and from the US: rebuilt from BTS T-100 with regional partners assigned to Alaska, our scope's growth matched Alaska's reported growth with a correlation of 0.999 over 8 quarters (2024Q3 to 2026Q2); average gap -0.06 pts, standard deviation 0.06 pts, covering 99.7% of the reported figure over the last four quarters.
Last year's side: flights from BTS On-Time with our seat method came to 99.6% to 99.8% of T-100's domestic seat-miles in each quarter of 2025.
This proves the scope and last year's side. Our own seat estimates for this year are checked against BTS On-Time and T-100 as each month is published (October in mid-December).

Not real-time, not a load factor and not a forecast of earnings. Compared with company guidance only.

## Frequently asked questions

### Where can I see the latest Alaska Demand Index reading?

Each month's reading and the official BTS T-100 figure beside it are in the Passenger Index Pro plan, through the last quarter Alaska has reported; the month to date is in Pro+. The combined index is free (https://passengerindex.com/web/airlines/).

### How accurate is it for Alaska?

Demand: the Alaska Demand Index (capacity-led: its seat growth) tracked Alaska's domestic boardings on all its flights (BTS T-100) with a correlation of 0.85 over 36 months. Seat-miles, flying to and from the US: rebuilt from BTS T-100 with regional partners assigned to Alaska, our scope's growth matched Alaska's reported growth with a correlation of 0.999 over 8 quarters (2024Q3 to 2026Q2); average gap -0.06 pts, standard deviation 0.06 pts, covering 99.7% of the reported figure over the last four quarters.

### Which airports does the Alaska Demand Index use?

Every airport Alaska flies from: the figure counts seats on all its domestic flights. Its main airports are SEA, HNL, PDX, OGG, ANC, KOA, LIH.

### What is BTS T-100?

The official count of airline passengers is BTS T-100: the US Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics compiles every US airline's monthly report of passengers carried on each route. BTS publishes it on a lag of about three months, so its latest figures are for July 2026 while the TSA data here runs to October 31, 2026. The Airline Demand Index reads the same trend from faster sources: the seats on the flights each airline actually flew, which Passenger Index counts the next morning, how full US flights are running nationally (TSA's daily checkpoint count against every airline's seats), and TSA screenings at the airline's hubs, which TSA releases weekly. So it gives a near-real-time look at where airline traffic is heading.

### Why does Pro wait until Alaska reports?

Pro is the finished record. The quarter in progress, and the weeks between quarter-end and the earnings release, are what Pro+ is for. Each quarter opens to Pro the day after the release.

### Is this real-time?

No. Flights are counted the next morning; TSA's airport files arrive weekly, 1 to 2 weeks behind. Each figure says the day it runs to.

### Is passengers per seat a load factor?

No. TSA counts travelers starting their trip, not connecting passengers, so it is a trend index: 100 means the same ratio as the same week last year.

### Which capacity is compared with guidance?

Domestic seat-miles first: domestic coverage is complete and last year's side is checked against BTS T-100. A system seat-mile guide is compared with seat-miles to and from the US once the airline's international flying has passed its own check; until then only where international is a small share of the airline's flying (Southwest). Delta guides on seats, so Delta is compared on domestic seats. A verdict appears only once 30 days of the quarter are in, and only where the seat-mile backtest passed.

### Does it forecast earnings?

No. It shows what flew and who was screened, against what the airline said it would fly. It is compared with company guidance only, never with analysts' estimates.