# Airline Scorecards

Source: Passenger Index, https://passengerindex.com/web/airlines/scorecards/ (CC BY 4.0). Updated 2026-11-07.

See the quarter before the airline reports. Each Scorecard sets the flights an airline actually flew this quarter, with their seats and seat-miles, against the same days last year and against the airline's own capacity guidance, next to its Demand Index.

## How the airline quarter opens up

| | Quarter in progress | Quarter closed, before the release | After the airline reports |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pro+ | Daily, quarter to date | The complete quarter against guidance | Every quarter |
| Pro | Airport totals, all airlines | Airport totals, all airlines | The Scorecard opens the day after the release |
| Free | Guidance and published accuracy | Guidance and published accuracy | Guidance and published accuracy |

Applies to everything broken down by airline: the Scorecards and each airline's demand index. Airport totals across all airlines are daily, weekly and monthly in Pro.

## Capacity guidance for Q4 2026

| Airline | Measure | Guide | Scope | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United | ASMs | flat to +2% | system | 2026-04-21 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000010051726000089/ual_erx03312026xex991.htm |
| Delta | seats | less than 2% | system | 2026-10-09 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27904/000002790426000035/deltaairlinesannouncessept.htm |
| American | ASMs | +5.5% to +6.5% | system | 2026-10-22 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6201/000000620126000064/a8kerexhibit991q3-26.htm |
| JetBlue | ASMs | +3% to +4% | system | 2026-10-26 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158463/000115846326000095/ex991-earningsreleaseq32026.htm |
| Southwest | ASMs | +3% to +4% | system | 2026-10-21 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/92380/000009238026000104/er-9302026xerdoc.htm |
| Alaska | ASMs | +1% to +1.5% | system | 2026-10-20 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/766421/000076642126000046/ex99110202026earningsrelea.htm |
| Frontier | ASMs | +5% to +6% | system | 2026-10-28 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1670076/000167007626000102/frontier_earningsreleasexq.htm |
| Allegiant | ASMs | about +0% | system | 2026-11-04 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1362468/000136246826000062/a2026q38-kex991.htm |

## Published accuracy

| Airline | Scope | Correlation | Quarters | Average gap (pts) | Gap sd (pts) | Demand index corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United | system | 1.000 | 14 | -0.02 | 0.09 | 0.94 |
| United | domestic | 0.988 | 14 | -0.29 | 0.69 |  |
| Delta | system | 1.000 | 14 | +0.03 | 0.08 | 0.91 |
| Delta | domestic | 0.994 | 14 | +0.06 | 0.39 |  |
| American | system | 1.000 | 14 | +0.03 | 0.08 | 0.95 |
| American | domestic | 0.993 | 14 | +0.03 | 0.26 |  |
| JetBlue | system | 1.000 | 14 | -0.02 | 0.12 | 0.95 |
| Southwest | system | 1.000 | 14 | +0.00 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Alaska | system | 0.999 | 8 | -0.06 | 0.06 | 0.85 |
| Frontier | system | 1.000 | 14 | -0.00 | 0.05 | 0.89 |
| Allegiant | system | 0.998 | 14 | -0.09 | 0.45 | 0.91 |

## Coverage and method

- **Seats:** Each flight's seats are estimated from its aircraft type and the seats airlines fly on that type (BTS T-100, latest 12 months); seat-miles are seats times the great-circle distance. The share of flights without a seat estimate is shown with the figures.
- **Airline:** Flights are counted with the airline that sells the seats: SkyWest, Republic, Envoy, PSA, Endeavor and the other regional partners count with United, Delta or American as they fly for them.
- **Scope:** Domestic: flights between US airports, each once. To and from the US: domestic plus international flights departing or arriving at US airports; flying wholly outside the US is not included. The international part is marked provisional until it has been checked against BTS T-100 for the airline.
- **Last year:** Each day is compared with the same weekday a year earlier: domestic flights from BTS On-Time with the same seat method, international seat-miles from BTS T-100 for that quarter, split by month in the airline's own T-100 pattern.
- **Q4 2026:** Our flight activity starts on October 26, 2026. October 1 to 25 is estimated, for domestic flying only, from adsb.lol aircraft position reports: each airline's departures between US airports are counted from the position tracks and given seats from the same aircraft-type table, then its flights, seats and seat-miles are each divided by that airline's ratio of position-report counts to our flight activity over October 27 to 31. BTS On-Time replaces these days when it publishes October (about mid-December). International flying is not estimated, so seat-miles to and from the US start on October 26, and a call against guidance needs 30 days of our own flight activity. Airport figures do not use these estimates.
- **Passengers per seat:** TSA screenings at the airline's hub checkpoints against the domestic seats departing those hubs, as an index: 100 is the same ratio as the same week last year. TSA does not see connecting passengers, so it is a trend, not a load factor.
- **Guidance:** Each airline's own capacity guidance, quoted from its earnings release or 8-K with the date. Never consensus: we have no estimates data.

Not real-time, not a load factor and not a forecast of earnings. Compared with company guidance only.

## Frequently asked questions

### Why does Pro wait until the airline reports?

Pro is the finished record. The quarter in progress, and the weeks between quarter-end and the earnings release, are what Pro+ is for. Each quarter opens to Pro the day after the release.

### Is this real-time?

No. Flights are counted the next morning; TSA's airport files arrive weekly, 1 to 2 weeks behind. Each figure says the day it runs to.

### Is passengers per seat a load factor?

No. TSA counts travelers starting their trip, not connecting passengers, so it is a trend index: 100 means the same ratio as the same week last year.

### Which capacity is compared with guidance?

Domestic seat-miles first: domestic coverage is complete and last year's side is checked against BTS T-100. A system seat-mile guide is compared with seat-miles to and from the US once the airline's international flying has passed its own check; until then only where international is a small share of the airline's flying (Southwest). Delta guides on seats, so Delta is compared on domestic seats. A verdict appears only once 30 days of the quarter are in, and only where the seat-mile backtest passed.

### Does it forecast earnings?

No. It shows what flew and who was screened, against what the airline said it would fly. It is compared with company guidance only, never with analysts' estimates.


- [United Airlines Scorecard](https://passengerindex.com/web/airlines/united/#quarter)
- [Delta Air Lines Scorecard](https://passengerindex.com/web/airlines/delta/#quarter)
- [American Airlines Scorecard](https://passengerindex.com/web/airlines/american/#quarter)
- [JetBlue Scorecard](https://passengerindex.com/web/airlines/jetblue/#quarter)
- [Southwest Airlines Scorecard](https://passengerindex.com/web/airlines/southwest/#quarter)
- [Alaska Air Group Scorecard](https://passengerindex.com/web/airlines/alaska/#quarter)
- [Frontier Airlines Scorecard](https://passengerindex.com/web/airlines/frontier/#quarter)
- [Allegiant and Sun Country Scorecard](https://passengerindex.com/web/airlines/allegiant/#quarter)